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☆ US home prices show signs of stabilizing, reports show
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Amina Niasse | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Octavio Jones Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. housing prices showed further signs of stabilizing in June, according to two reports out Tuesday that signaled the lengthy run of softening sales prices may be bottoming out. Both reports showed prices rose modestly month-over-month. House prices rose 3.0% between the second quarters of 2022 and 2023, FHFA said. FHFA's data showed June’s year-over-year gains were strongest in the East North Central and New England regions, up by 5.4% and 6.8%, respectively. On a city basis, the Case-Shiller data showed Chicago and Cleveland experiencing the greatest price accelerations.

Persons: Octavio Jones, FHFA, ”, Anju Vajja, ” Craig Lazzara, DJI, Amina Niasse, Safiyah Riddle, Andrea Ricci, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve, FHFA’s Division of Research, Statistics, East North, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, “ U.S, East North Central, New England, Chicago, Cleveland

☆ US jobless claims fall as labor market remains tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 24 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, as labor market conditions remained tight despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended Aug. 19, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The labor market is continuing to defy expectations in the face of the Fed's aggressive interest hikes since March 2022, as employers hoard workers after struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic. Labor market strength and receding inflation are fanning optimism that the economy could avoid a recession. These so-called continuing claims remain low by historical standards, indicating that some laid-off workers are experiencing short spells of unemployment.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, Reuters, Labor, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S

☆ US economy near stalling point as consumer demand weakens, survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity approached the stagnation point in August, with growth at its weakest since February as demand for new business in the vast service sector contracted. Wednesday's data was worse than expected, with economists polled by Reuters predicting that the services index would be 52.2 and the manufacturing index would be 49.3. "A near-stalling of business activity in August raises doubts over the strength of U.S. economic growth in the third quarter. Consumer demand posed a substantial drag on revenue for firms, as new business and orders contracted for firms across all sectors. New business in the service sector declined for the first time in six months, falling to 49.2 from 51.0 the month prior.

Persons: Chris Williamson, Safiyah Riddle, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, P Global, Service, Manufacturing, Reuters, P Global Market Intelligence, Consumer, Fed, Thomson Locations: Little Italy, Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ US existing home sales drop, but prices up from a year earlier
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sales fell in the Northeast, Midwest and South, but rose in the West. Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, fell 16.6% on a year-on-year basis in July. At July's sales pace, it would take 3.3 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.2 months a year ago. The median existing house price rose 1.9% from a year earlier to $406,700 in July, the fourth time it has topped $400,000. "Two factors are driving current sales activity - inventory availability and mortgage rates," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, National Association of Realtors, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Northeast, Midwest

☆ Majority of small businesses believe US is in recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Aug 21 (Reuters) - More than half of U.S. small business owners believe the economy is already in a recession, marking a slight decrease between July and April, despite most firms reporting their own financial condition was strong, a survey released on Monday showed. On the economy, 52% of small business owners said they believe the economy is already in a recession, down from 55% in April, the survey found. Recent indicators have shown strong retail sales and rising spending on services, the two largest small business industries. Moreover, businesses see their own financial condition as strong and their local economies relatively healthy. There was heightened concern among small businesses at the outset of the collapse since 80% of all small businesses use a small, mid-sized or regional bank for financial needs.

Persons: Safiyah Riddle, Josie Kao Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Silicon Valley Bank, U.S, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

☆ US 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to near 21-1/2-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Octavio Jones/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates surged this week, with the popular 30-year fixed rate hitting the highest level in more than 21 years, further complicating the housing market outlook. The average 30-year rate shot up to 7.09%, the highest level since April 2002, from 6.96% in the prior week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. But sky-high mortgage rates could temper recent building trends, keeping supply tight and house prices elevated. Higher mortgage rates were blamed for the ebb in confidence among homebuilders in August. "The housing market has been surprisingly resilient, confounding expectations for the last year," said Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant.

Persons: Octavio Jones, Freddie Mac, Freddie Mac's, Sam Khater, Lisa Sturtevant, Safiyah Riddle, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S, Commerce Department, MLS, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S

☆ U.S. home builder confidence falls for the first time in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Mike Blake/File PhotoAug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. home builder confidence weakened in August for the first time this year, according to a report released Tuesday, as record-breaking mortgage rates and still-high housing prices discouraged prospective buyers. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index retreated to 50 in August from a 13-month peak of 56 in July. Builder confidence was largely undermined by a drop in prospective buyer traffic, which fell to 34 in Augustfrom a year-long high of 40 in July. Economists polled by Reuters expected builder confidence to remain unchanged at 56. Many current home owners are locked into low mortgage rates, and have been reluctant to put existing homes on the market amidst expensive financing options.

Persons: Mike Blake, ”, Robert Dietz, Safiyah Riddle, Chizu Organizations: KB, REUTERS, National Association of Home Builders, Market, Reuters, Federal, U.S, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ US mortgage delinquency rates fall to all-time low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File PhotoAug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage delinquency rates fell to a record low in the second quarter due to a strong job market and low interest rates prevailing on most home loans despite the big jump in mortgage rates over the last two years, a report on Thursday said. Delinquency rates fell to 3.37% at the end of the second quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey, their lowest since the MBA began collecting data in 1979 and down from 3.64% year-on-year. Economists are watching mortgage delinquency rates closely for signs of weakness amidst the Federal Reserve's aggressive 525 basis point interest rate increase since March 2022, which increased the cost of borrowing across the board. Despite the historically low delinquency rate, the MBA said not every borrower has been able to withstand the recent stress of hiked interest rates. “Home sales were down due to higher mortgage rates and limited inventory,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, ”, Lawrence Yun, Safiyah Riddle, Dan Burns, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Mortgage, National Delinquency Survey, Federal Housing Administration, National Association of Realtors, “, Thomson Locations: York County , South Carolina, U.S

☆ U.S. mortgage rates spike to highest since November, approach 22-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

New townhomes are seen under construction while building material supplies are in high demand in Tampa, Florida, U.S., May 5, 2021. REUTERS/Octavio JonesAug 9 (Reuters) - The average U.S. 30-year mortgage rate jumped to a nine-month peak on Wednesday and hit the second-highest rate since 2001, as interest rates reacted sharply to a downgrading of U.S. government debt. Rates have not been that high since November 2022, which were then the highest levels since 2001. Recent data has suggested that the home price cooling engineered by the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign could be slowing down. But the recent data showing higher mortgage rates and crimped demand could be welcome news for overall shelter costs and the U.S. central bank's effort to bring inflation down.

Persons: Octavio Jones, Joel Kan, Safiyah Riddle, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Mortgage, Association, Association's, Federal, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S

☆ U.S. consumers saying 'bad time to buy' a house hits 13-year high in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A newly constructed home available for sale is pictured in a new housing development area in Vista, California March 20, 2012. Consumers' outlook also appears to have taken a hit, with a net 17% of respondents expecting price increases in the next 12 months, the highest percentage in over a year. Persistently high home-buying costs are in large part due to limited housing stock, which has remained at historically low levels. Many homeowners are now unwilling to buy a new home that would require more expensive financing compared to mortgage costs locked in before the Fed started raising rates. Reporting by Safiyah Riddle; Editing by Conor HumphriesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Mike Blake, Fannie Mae, Doug Duncan, Safiyah Riddle, Conor Humphries Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, Thomson Locations: Vista , California, U.S

☆ US labor market resilient; productivity rebounds in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed a marked slowdown in labor costs in the second quarter, thanks to a sharp rebound in worker productivity. That added to reports last month showing a significant moderation in annual inflation in June as well as wage growth in the second quarter. Reuters GraphicsWorkers were more productive in the second quarter, which helped to curb growth in labor costs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.7% annualized rate in the second quarter after declining at a 1.2% pace in the January-March quarter, the Labor Department said in a third report. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rose at a 1.6% rate in the second quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Bill Adams, Nonfarm payrolls, Sarah House, Lucia Mutikani, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Labor, The Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Workers, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Dallas, California, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ Extreme heat cuts into US small business, worker hours in July, report shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Carlos BarriaAug 1 (Reuters) - Record-breaking heat waves across the U.S. forced small businesses to close early in July, according to a report released on Tuesday, and reduced paid working hours for employees as dangerous temperatures reshape consumer behavior. Hundreds of millions Americans dealt with extreme heat advisories in the past two weeks, as temperatures across the South and Southwest hit historic highs. These hazardous conditions have kept consumers inside and forced small businesses to close early - cutting into paid hours for employees - according to a report by the small business payroll company Homebase. Nationally, small business employees worked 0.9% fewer hours in the first two weeks of July compared with the last two weeks of June - a standard seasonal change that is typical of summer months - the report said. Small business employees in New Orleans and Memphis, for example, were on the clock 5.7% and 5.1% less, respectively, than they were in June as business owners shorten hours to adjust for fewer customers and try to protect employees from too much heat exposure.

Persons: Carlos Barria, slowdowns, John Waldmann, Danah Lee, Lee, I've, Travis Parsons, Parsons, It's, Safiyah Riddle, Dan Burns Organizations: REUTERS, Southwest, Homebase, Memphis, Boston, Taco Joint, Weather Service, International Union of, Thomson Locations: Scottsdale, Phoenix, Arizona, U.S, New Orleans, Memphis, International Union of North America, Canada

Powell acknowledged as a positive development that inflation has fallen from the highs of last year without serious damage to the economy. "We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year," Powell said. 'MODERATE' GROWTHU.S. Treasury yields slid in choppy trading after the release of the Fed policy statement, while U.S. stocks ended largely unchanged. Futures markets showed little change in bets on the path of Fed rate increases over the remainder of the year, with small odds given to a rise in September. Though Powell said Fed staff had relaxed a prediction of a recession in coming months, outside analysts still think that's what it may take to finish the inflation fight.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Powell, what's, Kathy Bostjancic, nodded, Taylor Swift, he's, Veronica Clark, we're, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Treasury, Nationwide, Citi, Derby, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington , U.S

☆ Key U.S. credit metrics that will inform the Fed's policy moves
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Just how freely credit is flowing - and is likely to flow in the near term - is a key input. A valuable guide to that is the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS), a quarterly survey of commercial banks that Fed officials consider as they debate policy moves. The Fed's SLOOS splits credit demand into several main categories, including firms of varying sizes for commercial and industrial loans, commercial and residential real estate and other consumer loans such as credit cards and auto loans. Demand for commercial real estate loans plummeted as remote work diminished the value of office space. By contrast, demand for credit card lending dropped more modestly, propped up by robust consumer spending and healthy household balance sheets.

Persons: Safiyah Riddle, Dan Burns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Senior, Bank Lending, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Securities, Dallas Fed, Thomson Locations: Silicon, U.S

☆ U.S. business activity growth slows as services soften
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

July's reading showed the sixth straight month of growth but was restrained by softening conditions in the service sector. “The overall rate of output growth, measured across manufacturing and services, is consistent with GDP expanding at an annualized quarterly rate of approximately 1.5% at the start of the third quarter. The slowdown may be viewed positively at the Fed, which is keen to see activity cool to lower inflation. The services activity index fell to 52.4 from 54.4 in June and was weaker than the reading of 54 expected among economists in a Reuters poll. The survey's manufacturing output index, meanwhile, experienced growth for the first time in two months, rising to 50.2 from a contracting rate of 46.9 in June.

Persons: Chris Williamson, Williamson, Safiyah Riddle, Andrea Ricci Organizations: P Global, P Global Market Intelligence, headcount, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ U.S. leading indicators point to recession starting soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. “Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024. "Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further," Zabinska-La Monica said. The Conference Board said the contraction in the LEI is accelerating, falling 4.2% over the last six months compared to 3.8% between June and December 2022.

Persons: ” Justyna, Monica, Safiyah Riddle, Andrea Ricci Organizations: The Conference, Board, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ US new business applications hit two-year high in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

July 18 (Reuters) - Applications to start new U.S. businesses surged to the highest level in two years in June, despite high interest rates and uncertain economic outlook, according to a Commerce Department report released on Monday. Business applications increased 6.2% in June compared with May with a seasonally adjusted 465,906 new applications. The data is collected from business applications for tax identification numbers. They slowed somewhat last year as the Federal Reserve kicked off aggressive interest rate hikes to lower inflation, but have been climbing again this year. The Census Bureau estimated that 32,148 new business startups with payroll tax liabilities will actually form within four quarters of application, a 4% increase compared to estimates from May.

Persons: Safiyah Riddle, Josie Kao Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ A look at the state of US bank credit as earnings season begins
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Bank credit growth began slowing in the second half of last year and has slowed further since the SVB failure, although that deceleration has not been uniform. Meanwhile, here's a look at the current state of the bank credit scene, according to data published each week by the Fed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsCONSUMER CREDITThe Fed splits this category into three tranches: credit cards, auto loans and all other consumer loans. Bank credit card lending is the largest of the three at nearly $1 trillion, a record. Both CRE and residential real estate loans are still rising year over year, but at a much slower pace.

Persons: Banks, Safiyah Riddle, Dan Burns, Anna Driver Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Federal, Fed, Securities, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon, Bank

☆ U.S. Black employment falls despite wider job market stability
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Black unemployment rate rose to 6.0% last month, the highest since last August, from 5.6% in May, even as the overall jobless rate ticked down a notch to 3.6%. In fact, the majority of the 239,000 person decrease in Black employment came from the people who left the labor force altogether in June, according to the report. The exact cause of the recent weakening in Black employment is not yet clear. Reuters GraphicsNonetheless, a spike in the Black unemployment rate can be a strong predictor of an impending recession, since Black workers have historically been the first to be fired during an economic downturn. Su also said the rise in Black unemployment and the decline in participation is something the Biden administration would "continue to track."

Persons: William M, Rodgers III, Louis, Rodgers, it's, Rakeen Mabud, Julie Su, Su, Biden, Safiyah Riddle, Chizu Nomiyama, Dan Burns Organizations: U.S, Labor, Labor Department, Blacks, Reuters, Louis Federal Reserve's Institute of Economic Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ US layoffs fall to seven-month low in June, report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton(Reuters) - American employers slowed downsizing in June, announcing the lowest number of layoffs since October 2022. The planned pace of layoffs in June was well above the 32,517 cuts announced in June 2022. There are 458,209 cuts so far this year, a 244% increase from the 133,211 layoffs announced through June 2022, as employers brace for the prospect of recession. Last month’s announced job cuts total was the highest for a month of June since 2020. The technology sector continues to downsize the fastest with 141,516 total job cuts announced this year, up 2,353% from 5,769 over the same period in 2022.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, ” Andrew Challenger, month’s Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Fed, Challenger, Department of Labor Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ US weekly claims rise moderately; private payrolls surge in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"A tight labor market will keep the rate path on an upward trajectory, until policymakers see a material rebalancing in supply and demand." Claims, relative to the size of the labor market, are below the 280,000 level that economists say would signal a significant slowdown in job growth. A survey last month showed consumers' views of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. Though policymakers viewed the labor market as remaining "very tight," they "anticipated that employment growth would likely slow further." The claims data has no bearing on June's employment report, scheduled for release on Friday.

Persons: Rubeela Farooqi, Unadjusted, payrolls, nonfarm payrolls, Andrew Challenger, Lucia Mutikani, Safiyah Riddle, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, Fed, ADP, Challenger, Companies, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, Minnesota, Michigan , New York , Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, New Jersey, U.S

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